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Alea Research

Keeta - KTA

September 30, 20253 min

KTA

Sep 29

Gaining significant mindshare once again, recovering from a mainnet-launch “sell the news” dump. Mainnet may be the trigger many CEXs were waiting for before listing. For context, the KTA token was launched in March on Base, getting a lot of traction given Eric Schmidt’s (former Google CEO and 56th richest person in the world) involvement writing a $20M check as his first crypto angel investment. The equity valuation stood at $75M at the time, and TGE coincided with a low-9-figures initial FDV. The selling point: a hybrid permissioned/permissionless high-performance chain built for institutions, with no VC unlocks, and a community-first approach that plays well with enterprise adoption (KYC is optional and AML is possible at the transaction level).

KTA was launched directly onchain as a non-VC backed, community-first high-performance chain. The ticker literally dropped without prior warning—to the point of creating confusion if this was the real token (since it’s supposed to be a L1, but the token launched on Base). Early buyers could enter <$1M market cap; price ranged ~$5-10M market cap before rising to ~$25M in a shot; the next leg up sent KTA another 10x to ~$250M market cap; peaking at a ~$600M double top. Today, ~$600M is where the FDV is at. This comes at an opportune time when KTA is climbing the mindshare ladders once again, propelled by the cult-like behavior of a die-hard community that was lucky enough to experience an unprecedented wealth effect—price from ~$0.01 to the current ~$0.6 eyeing the $1 psychological level (ATH being $1.6).

With mindshare growing and a thin float, marginal demand can move price fast. That cocktail—attention, access, and scarce supply—tilts risk‑reward positive. The chain is live, listings may follow, and the token’s structure is unusually clean. There is added information symmetry embedded in its current FDV. The key twist is that the team announced a merge of the 20% team and 20% early investor supply, committing to a permanent hold with wallet addresses disclosed. That leaves any remaining supply increases being a 10% allocation to community incentives distributed over 3 years. However, there are also material drawbacks, primarily related to profit-taking behavior and supply concentration.

As evidenced by the chart above, the tape has a track record of large chops that obscure the 100x returns of the early risk-takers. “Community‑first” plus a stealth drop usually means “insiders first, community later.” It isn’t just the thin float and mix of silent insiders with a loud crowd that raised a few eyebrows. Claims of Eric Schmidt’s direct involvement also lack evidence beyond news headlines from TechCrunch in 2023, and may actually be related to his involvement in Steel Perlot, which is a crypto and AI fund led by Michelle Ritter, his former partner. From a media perspective, it’s much cooler to mention Eric while omitting a relatively unknown fund—Ritter probably didn’t like that gimmick.

Bottom line: this is shaping out to become a “fake it till you make it” story where price action can outrun truth. Insiders hold size, the float is thin, and some claims look patched. Yet the crowd loves momentum and simple stories that can reflexively attract more buyers piling up on the myth. The risk is concentration; the tailwind is momentum. Call it what it is: if the music stops, supply concentration risk bites first.

Keeta - KTA — Alea Research