The Tether Monopoly Is Over
Speakers
Gwart
Witty CT account & Host of The Gwart Show
Facundo Werning
Head of Latam, Agora
- •Stablecoin real-world fit: Facundo Werning argues that stablecoins solve acute money-movement pain in emerging markets where FX is costly and banking rails underperform, making USDT the default last mile in LatAm.
- •Tether’s edge vs partner economics: Tether’s last-mile distribution and brand have reached escape velocity, yet its take-it-or-leave-it posture leaves room for issuers like Agora to win institutions and chains by sharing economics and staying neutral.
- •Agora’s positioning: Agora pitches bank-grade trust and usability, with State Street custody of reserves, monthly attestations, detailed T-bill disclosures, best-in-class FX liquidity versus other stables, chain neutrality, and white label optionality.
- •Float is the new revenue line: Chains and large apps sitting on $10B of stablecoins are forgoing roughly $400M per annum in risk-free yield, reshaping incentives to adopt issuers that share returns.
- •Fragmentation ahead, middleware wins: Expect many issuers, including banks and crypto-native players; middleware will abstract fragmentation and standardize assets anchored in T-bills while preserving a $1 in/$1 out UX.
- •“Stable chains” and core primitives: Rails will tilt to stablecoin-heavy activity, with teams incented to enshrine default-quality lending, swapping, and sending primitives, and monetize via credit and lending rather than block subsidies alone.
- •Macro snap risk: Nation-state Bitcoin accumulation by a G20 member could trigger rapid repricing; in Argentina, Javier Milei is catalyzing a youth shift toward fiscal conservatism, shaping policy receptivity to crypto.
On Facundo Werning’s path and Tether operations
Facundo Werning traces an unconventional path from Argentina to U.S. upbringing, internships in mid-market finance, crypto VC at Zokio with early exposure to LayerZero, a brief stint at Worldcoin, and policy work drafting a crypto law with Stefan Gallabac. The policy route led directly to Tether, where Facundo Werning became one of the first country managers. Day to day, the work centered on channel partners like exchanges, wallets, and emerging stablecoin neobanks, plus regulatory engagement with the central bank and market supervisors, and long-cycle conversations with traditional banks that need explicit compliance sign-off, especially G-SIBs with global risk committees. Facundo Werning stresses crypto and emerging markets are both low-information, and at their intersection you should assume near-zero reliable data. Facundo Werning’s view of actual crypto users is starkly conservative, arguing the active base may be in the high six figures, which is bearish for many products but bullish for stablecoins.
On Argentina’s dollar reality and USDT dominance
Argentina’s deep capital controls created multiple dollar rates, with everyday FX facilitated by informal cuevas that now ubiquitously accept USDT and typically quote about 20 bps over the dollar blue rate, which references physical cash dollars. Argentina likely holds more physical greenbacks per capita than the U.S., a legacy of the 2001 convertibility collapse. Facundo Werning reports broad recognition of USDT under colloquial names like “dólar cripto,” and finds even C-level bank executives have personally used stablecoins to move mid-six figures. The use case is both savings and payments. A vivid anecdote is a missionary who relied on stablecoins to buy food during the pandemic when other rails failed. The practical lesson is last-mile USDT liquidity is entrenched and hard to supplant.
On Agora’s model and differentiation
Agora’s core pitch is trust and partner alignment. Reserves are custodied with State Street, with monthly third-party attestations and transparency on the average maturity of T-bills. The team emphasizes bank-grade branding and responsiveness that large institutions expect. Commercially, Agora shares economics with partners, provides strong FX liquidity against other stables globally, and maintains strict neutrality by not launching competing apps or chains. The platform supports white label issuance when it truly fits, while many prospects ultimately prefer to leverage AUSD without competing with their own product verticals. Facundo Werning notes pending U.S. stablecoin legislation is not yet law, so “compliance” claims are premature, but Agora is designed to meet those requirements when effective. The target customer set spans banks, fintechs, wallets, chains, and lending markets seeking compliant rails and a share of the float.
On market structure, Tether’s last-mile, and the
duopoly debate Facundo Werning expects Tether’s supply to keep growing, given its superior last-mile network in emerging markets. At the same time, the profit pool tied to stablecoin float is catalyzing competition from crypto-native firms and traditional institutions. Facundo Werning disputes data suggesting USDC dominance in Argentina, asserting that below Mexico roughly 90 percent of stablecoin fiat flows pair local currency with USDT. Tether’s network resembles Western Union’s persistent relevance. The wedge for challengers is not last-mile retail, but rather partner economics, neutrality, and institutional compatibility.
On yields, neobanks, and bank disruption
Local dollar yields in Argentina are about 3 percent in subsidized institutional money markets, while stablecoin strategies can reach 10 to 12 percent per annum, albeit with smart contract risk. Stablecoin neobanks are proliferating but lack balance sheets to originate credit, creating a path to partner with banks for mortgages and other loans. The end-state likely includes many issuers. Middleware will abstract differences so that users still see $1 when they send $1, while assets sit in short-duration T-bills. Hidden fees in traditional banking make explicit slippage feel worse than it is; the stablecoin promise is cleaner economics and yield sharing back to users and platforms. Facundo Werning argues bank and fintech models will be upended within a decade as stablecoin rails become standard.
On chains, “stable chains,” and core primitives
Facundo Werning expects “stable chains” optimized for payments and transfers to emerge, with aggressive gas rebates and high throughput. Long term, chains need real monetization beyond subsidies, likely by capturing a piece of lending and credit. Teams should consider offering default-quality, nonexclusive primitives for lending, swapping, and sending, akin to a retailer’s store-brand water. The Hyperliquid stablecoin market episode triggered inbound interest across teams who suddenly realized float yield could equal or exceed existing revenue. That moment raised the bar for sharing economics across ecosystems.
On DATs as coordinated capital and token economics
DATs, described as coordinated pools of capital from aligned holders, can pressure protocols to adopt stablecoins like AUSD to capture ecosystem value, while helping protocols solve liquidity concentration. Buybacks can be a credible signal of value alignment even if growth-mode businesses should not rely on them long term. Facundo Werning likens it to Amazon periodically demonstrating break-even capability to reassure investors, even while optimizing for growth.
On Bitcoin, nation-states, and Argentine politics
Facundo Werning is long-term bullish on Bitcoin. A G20 central bank balance-sheet allocation could produce rapid repricing given concentrated decision-makers who move markets. The generational trade is short gold and long Bitcoin as wealth preferences shift. In Argentina, Javier Milei has inverted the political map by attracting young voters to fiscal conservatism, which could set a more open environment for crypto and dollarization debates over time.
- →Watch for chains, wallets, and fintechs to demand revenue sharing on stablecoin float, particularly after high-profile catalysts like the Hyperliquid episode.
- →Track institutional and bank-led stablecoin issuance and the rise of middleware that normalizes fragmentation while preserving $1 in/$1 out UX.
- →Monitor pending U.S. stablecoin legislation progress and early adopters among G20 central banks for signals of a rapid Bitcoin repricing regime.